Prognostics of recidivism for incarcerated juvenile offenders: More evidence

Abstract

Considerable effort has been made in the past to identify reliable predictors of recidivism for incarcerated juvenile offenders, but with mixed results. This study draws extensively on previous research to produce a parsimonious set of reliable predictors from a large pool of potential indicators, using data available from a large sample of dischargees from a secure state facility in the state of Louisiana. Sociodemographic profiles and delinquent histories of 1,319 juvenile offenders released during the 1999/2000 fiscal year were systematically distilled and from a wide array of potential predictors, a multi-method analysis revealed the following as the most reliable predictors of recidivism in the order of significance: offense type, drug use, peer influence, seriousness of the offense, alcohol use, age at first adjudication, and duration of incarceration.